American Invest Hub
  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News

American Invest Hub

  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News
Investing

EUR/USD forecast ahead of ECB decision and US inflation data

by admin December 8, 2024
December 8, 2024
EUR/USD forecast ahead of ECB decision and US inflation data

The EUR/USD will be in the spotlight this week as the European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its interest rate decision. It will also be in focus as the US releases the upcoming consumer inflation data. It was trading at 1.0567, a few points below last week’s high of 1.0620.

US inflation data ahead

The EUR/USD pair will react to the upcoming consumer price index (CPI), which will provide more color on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. 

Economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated from 2.6% in October to 2.5% in November. Analysts expect the data to show that inflation eased from 0.25 to 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. 

The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to come in at 3.2%, lower than the previous 3.3%.

Inflation has remained stubbornly higher in the past few months because of the services sector. For example, the cost of housing and insurance has continued to rise in the past few months.

On the positive side, energy prices have moved downwards, helped by falling oil prices. Brent, the global benchmark, fell to $71, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $67.2. 

These numbers will come a few days after the US released the relatively strong jobs numbers. The economy added 227k jobs in November, higher than the median estimate of 202k. It was also much higher than the upwardly revised 36k that were created in the previous month.

October’s weak jobs numbers were mostly because of the recent strikes at Boeing, one of the biggest employers in the US. It also happened because of the recent hurricanes in the US.

These economic data will help to determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the next meeting. Most analysts now believe that the bank will not cut rates as it has done in the last two meetings. 

However, some economists expect the bank to cut rates by 0.25% and then start cutting gradually. 

ECB interest rate decision ahead

The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. 

This will be a notable decision since the European economy is not doing all that well. The most recent data showed that the economy expanded by 0.9% YoY in the third quarter, an improvement from 0.6%. It grew by 0.4% on a QoQ basis. 

Some key European economies are not doing well. The French government has largely collapsed, while the manufacturing sector across the region is struggling. For example, Volkswagen has embarked on a major cost-cutting exercise as its growth imploded. 

Therefore, analysts expect the ECB to continue cutting rates this week. If this happens, it will move rates from 3.40% to 3.15% and the deposit facility rate to 3%.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD chart by TradingView

The EUR/USD pair formed a double-top pattern at 1.1200 in September. A double-top is one of the most popular bearish signs in the market. It then formed a death cross as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. 

The pair then plunged to a low of 1.0333 in November and then bounced back to 1.0610 last week. It has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a popular bullish sign. 

Therefore, the pair may continue rising this week, if bulls manage to push it above the resistance at 1.0610. If this happens, it may continue rising as bulls target the 50-day moving average at 1.0710.

The post EUR/USD forecast ahead of ECB decision and US inflation data appeared first on Invezz

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
MongoDB stock price forms golden cross nears ahead of earnings
next post
Crypto price predictions: Pepe, Floki, and Dogwifhat

Related Posts

Planet Fitness stock forecast: is PLNT a buy...

February 23, 2025

Here’s why the Zimbabwe ZiG currency has stabilized

January 13, 2025

Uber stock surged to ATH: Will Grab Holdings...

October 20, 2024

How are Mullen Automotive, Polestar, Faraday Future stocks...

March 25, 2025

USD/MXN forecast ahead of Trump Liberation Day tariffs

March 29, 2025

Labyrinth Resources Limited (ASX: LRL) – Trading Halt

July 16, 2024

Digital Realty stock is severely overvalued; sits at...

September 18, 2024

Galan Builds Inventory with 1,000t LCE, Advances HMW...

May 16, 2024

True North Copper Updates Vero Copper-Silver Resource

August 9, 2024

Ethereum price nears make-or-break level vs Bitcoin

April 10, 2025

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest News

    • How Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown may tank the labor market

      August 4, 2025
    • Trump’s tariff threat looms over India’s Russian oil deals

      August 4, 2025
    • Trump moves nuclear submarines near Russia: what triggered the move and what’s ahead

      August 3, 2025
    • BOE rate cuts offer little relief as UK households face mounting financial strain

      August 3, 2025
    • Retail investors shift focus to Europe as US valuations stretch

      August 3, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (3,583)
    • Investing (2,703)
    • Latest News (2,031)
    • Politics (1,530)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: americaninvesthub.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 americaninvesthub.com | All Rights Reserved