American Invest Hub
  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News

American Invest Hub

  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News
Investing

TLT ETF stock forms death cross as outflows surge: what next?

by admin December 27, 2024
December 27, 2024
TLT ETF stock forms death cross as outflows surge: what next?

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) continued retreating this week, falling from the year-to-date high of $100.2 to the current $87.82. It has plunged to its lowest level since May 31st and formed a death cross pattern. So, what next for the blue-chip bond ETF as outflows surge?

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond outflows surge

The TLT ETF has plunged hard in the past few weeks as US bond yields have soared after the highly hawkish Federal Reserve decision. 

In that meeting, the Fed slashed interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the cumulative cuts to 1%, and hinted that more was coming. 

The bank also pointed to two more interest rate hikes in 2025, with analysts at UBS expecting it to restart in June. 

This decision was more hawkish since officials had hinted that the bank would deliver four cuts in 2025. It is now more concerned about the policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration.

Trump has made many pledges that will impact the bond market. One is to slash taxes, which will increase the deficit. An independent watchdog predicts a $7.5 trillion surge in the deficit in the next decade.

Trump has also pledged to introduce tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, Canadian, and European goods to lower the deficit. Tariffs are indirect taxes since Americans pay for them in the form of higher prices. 

Meanwhile, his plan to deport millions of illegal migrants will also lead to more inflation since these people are the biggest employees in industries like construction and agriculture. 

Bond yields have soared, therefore, as investors anticipate more inflation in 2025 and fewer cuts. The ten-year yield rose to 4.57%, the highest since May, while the 30-year rose to 4.765% and the five-year moved to 4.43%. 

The TLT ETF has crashed as investors abandoned long-term bonds. ETF.com data shows that the fund is on track to have its biggest monthly outflows in years. It has shed over $5.3 billion in assets this month after losing $1.3 billion last month. These flows bring the year-to-date net inflows to $5.2 billion. 

TLT ETF inflows and outflows

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

·Follow

1/3

What is TLT Signaling?

TLT is the iShares 20-Treasury ETF, one of today’s largest and most influential bond ETFs.

I’ve been arguing that the bond market rise in yields as the Fed cutting rates has been a rejection of the easing cycle. The bond market is saying the Fed has…

12:19 AM · Dec 26, 2024

1.7K

Reply

Read 138 replies

The TLT ETF faces major headwinds ahead as US public debt surges to a record high of $36.3 trillion. At some point, especially if Trump succeeds in implementing some of his policies, there is a likelihood that the fund will continue falling as default risks rise.

TLT ETF analysis

TLT chart by TradingView

The daily chart shows that the TLT ETF stock has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months, as we predicted. The sell-off continued after the Federal Reserve delivered a more hawkish tone than expected. 

It has recently dropped below the key support at $88.83, its lowest swing in November this year. The fund has also formed a death cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. 

It is also nearing the lower side of the descending channel, while the MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have pointed downwards. Therefore, the fund will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at $80, 9% below the current level. 

The post TLT ETF stock forms death cross as outflows surge: what next? appeared first on Invezz

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Here’s one reason why the SPY, QQQ, DIA ETFs may plunge in 2025
next post
USD/JPY forecast 2024: golden cross points to more gains

Related Posts

Cyclone Metals

April 12, 2024

USD/INR analysis: here’s why the Indian rupee is...

March 29, 2025

Nornickel and China Copper Consider Joint Venture for...

July 11, 2024

Colgate-Palmolive stock analysis: overvalued ahead of earnings

January 30, 2025

Affirm stock price analysis: to go beast mode...

October 13, 2024

JEPI forecast: will this covered call ETF rise...

January 6, 2025

Vertiv Holdings stock forms a risky pattern; Oct....

October 12, 2024

Top 10 Manganese-producing Countries (Updated 2024)

July 30, 2024

More High Grade with up to 60% Heavy...

June 28, 2024

COWZ ETF is beating VOO and CALF funds:...

February 12, 2025

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest News

    • GMS stock jumps 29% on takeover interest from Home Depot, QXO, analysts raise PTs

      June 22, 2025
    • Japan’s rice price surge: what’s driving it and why it could spark a political crisis

      June 22, 2025
    • BofA raises STOXX 600 target amid resilient global growth, warns on Mideast risks

      June 22, 2025
    • Palantir co-founder: US must prevent Iranian nukes

      June 22, 2025
    • Fed governor Waller advocates for July rate cut amid tariff, labor market outlook

      June 21, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (3,169)
    • Investing (2,522)
    • Latest News (2,000)
    • Politics (1,530)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: americaninvesthub.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 americaninvesthub.com | All Rights Reserved