Match Group stock price has imploded as the online dating industry goes through the biggest slowdown in years. MTCH shares were trading at $32.85, down by over 82% from the all-time high, bringing its valuation from $50 billion to $8.35 billion.
Users have fallen out of love with dating apps
Match Group, the parent company of Tinder, Match.com, Meetic, and OkCupid, is struggling as users spend less time and money on the platform.
This slowdown has also affected other companies in the online dating industry. Bumble stock fell 46% this year, which is notable because Bumble owns other popular dating brands like Badoo and Fruitz.
The only dating app that is performing well is Grindr, whose stock doubled in 2024, giving it a market cap of over $3.13 billion.
Match Group’s challenge is that its business trajectory has worsened after booming during the pandemic. While active users are growing, the trajectory has been weak. Also, people are no longer interested in paying for dates.
Match Group’s annual revenue rose from $2 billion in 2019 to over $3.36 billion in 2023. While this was good growth, its revenue rose from $3.18 billion in 2022 to $3.3 billion.
The most recent earnings report showed that Match Group’s revenue growth deteriorated in the third quarter. Its revenue rose by 2% to $895 million as subscribers dropped by 2% to 15.2 million. This slowdown in active subscribers will likely continue in the foreseeable future as demand wanes.
Tinder, the biggest brand in its portfolio, ended the quarter with over 9.94 million paying users, down by 4% YoY. Its monthly active users has continued to fall.
On the positive side, other players in its portfolio like Hinge and Match Group Asia added more paying users during the quarter. The other positive for Match Group is that it has attracted activist investors like Elliot Management and Starboard Value, pushing the management to make changes or even take it private.
Match Group has started making changes to boost its profitability. It has slashed jobs by about 6%, exited Hakuna and other unprofitable ventures, such as live streaming, and is investing in artificial intelligence solutions.
Analysts are fairly pessimistic about Match Group’s business. They expect its fourth-quarter revenue to drop by 0.8% to $859 million. That revenue growth will bring its annual revenue to $3.48 billion. It will then grow by 0.91% next year to $3.51 billion.
Analysts expect that Match Group’s earnings per share will be 84 cents this quarter, a drop from $1.08 to 84 cents. Their average stock target is $36.70, up from the current $33.2.
Read more: Very bad news for Bumble and Match Group stocks
Match Group stock price analysis
The weekly chart shows that the MTCH share price has remained in a tight range since 2023. It has found a strong support at $28.83, where it failed to move below four times since May last year.
Match Group stock has also formed a descending triangle pattern whose upper side connects the highest swing since January 2023. It has also moved slighly below the 50-day moving average.
Therefore, the stock’s outlook is bearish, with the next level to watch being at $25. More downward trend will be confirmed if the stock drops below the support at $28.8.
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