Rio Tinto share price has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few weeks as investors assess the prices of key commodities. The stock was trading at 5,000p in London, a few points below last year’s high of 5,635p. It has four key catalysts that could affect its price this year.
Rio Tinto could merge with Glencore
The most important factor that could push the Rio Tinto share price higher or lower is the rumoured combination with Glencore, one of the biggest mining companies.
Rio Tinto has a market cap of over £70 billion, while Glencore is valued at £45.86 billion. As such a combination would create the biggest mining company in the world, passing BHP, the Australian giant. Rio Tinto made $54 billion in annual revenue in 2023, while Glencore made over $217 billion.
It is still unclear whether the two companies will agree to a deal or whether regulators would allow it because of its size. What is clear, however, is that the deal would impact the Rio Tinto share price.
Another clear thing is that Rio Tinto is willing to do deals as it prepares for the next commodity supercycle. Last year, we reported that Rio was interested in acquiring Teck Resources, a leading Canadian miner.
Resolute mine approval
The next key potential catalyst for the Rio Tinto share price will be the Donald Trump administration, which may approve the Resolute Mine in Arizona.
This is a big mine that has been held up in regulatory red tape in the last 12 years. Trump campaigned on deregulating industries, a move that could see him lift most of the regulatory burden facing the company.
The Resolute Mine has substantial copper that could supply about 25% of American needs. It will also benefit from Trump’s announcement of faster regulatory clearances for investments worth over $1 billion.
The mine would also help Trump lower the country’s trade deficit by reducing its key imports. It would also help Rio Tinto start mining a key resource whose demand is expected to soar in the next few years. In a note to the FT, the CEO said:
“I do think that we have really good chances now to progress that project. If the US want to be less dependent on importing a critical mineral like copper, it would be a good thing.
Commodity prices movements
The other potential catalyst for the Rio Tinto share price will be the ongoing commodity prices movements. Iron ore and copper prices have risen in the past few days as investors assess the strength of the Chinese economy.
Recent data showed that China’s economy grew by 5% in 2024 and 5.4% in the fourth quarter. This is a strong growth trajectory than what most analysts were expecting.
There are also signs that Donald Trump will not impose large tariffs on China. Instead, he wants to do a deal to help reduce the deficit. Avoiding a trade war could help to boost the Rio Tinto share price in the long term.
Rio Tinto share price forecast
The other catalyst for the Rio Tinto stock price is the ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is made up of a horizontal line connecting key resistance levels and an ascending line linking a few lower highs. In most periods, this pattern usually leads to a strong bullish breakout. In this case, the breakout could push it to the next key resistance at 6,000p.
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