AMC stock price continued to retreat this year as investors remained wary about the Box Office and its profitability this year. It has dropped by 17% the year so far and is hovering at its lowest level on record. AMC shares have plunged by almost 100% from its highest level in 2022, giving it a market cap of over $1.2 billion.
So, is the AMC stock price a good buy as the Wyckoff Theory suggests that it is in the accumulation phase?
AMC Entertainment and Box Office woes
AMC, the biggest movie theatre company in the US, has gone through a rough patch in the past few years. Its debt load has remained elevated, and box office attendance remains challenging this year.
Data shows that Box Office revenue in the US and Canada rose to about $8.56 billion in 2024, a drop from $8.9 billion in 2023. This decline was understandable due to the weak comparisons of the viral Barbie and Oppenheimer movies. The revenue was also still lower than in 2019.
There are signs that demand for movie theatres is still high. For example, the company served 8.8 million customers during Thanksgiving, and its revenue during the pre-Thanksgiving weekend was the highest in its 2024 history.
The most recent results showed that AMC Entertainment’s revenue dropped by 4.1% in the third quarter to $1.34 billion. Its nine-month revenue fell by 10% to $3.7 billion, which it blamed for the Holywood strikes in 2023.
AMC also returned to its loss-making ways as its net loss rose to $20.7 million from a profit of $12.3 million a year earlier. Its nine-month loss was over $214 million.
Top Box Office releases in 2025
The Box Office industry is likely to continue slowing this year even as studios release top movies. The most notable releases expected this year are Superman, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Mission Impossible, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, and Frankenstein.
Wall Street analysts expect that AMC’s business will bring in $1.29 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, pushing the annual figure to over $4.69 billion, a 3.9% decline from a year earlier.
They also expect the annual revenue for 2025 to be $5.16 billion, a 12% increase from the previous period. Analysts also anticipate that AMC’s business will take longer to break even, with last year’s loss per share being $1.04 followed by 68 cents next year.
A key concern for AMC has always been how to deal with its heavy debt burden. It ended the quarter with operating lease liabilities of over $3.7 billion qns corporate borrowings of $4.05 billion. Its total liabilities stood at over $10 billion.
On the positive side, AMC managed to renegotiate with its creditors in 2024 and agreed to extend its most pressing maturities to 2029, a move that will reduce its bankruptcy risks.
Read more: AMC stock price imploded: are its 20% yielding junk bonds safe?
AMC stock price analysis
The weekly chart above shows that the AMC share price has remained in a deep consolidation phase since September 2023. This wavering explains why the stock appears to be moving in a horizontal direction.
AMC stock is also consolidating at the 50-week and 100-week moving averages.
The Wyckoff Theory can be used to make a contrarian case of the AMC stock price. The theory suggests that the stock has moved to the accumulation phase, which is followed by the markup phase, where demand outshines supply.
Therefore, the AMC stock price will likely have a strong bullish break out later this year, with the next target level being at $5.45, the highest point on December 2.
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