Coinbase is expected to report a significant rise in fourth-quarter revenue on Thursday, driven by a surge in cryptocurrency prices following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Investors are watching closely to see if the exchange has capitalized on renewed enthusiasm in the crypto sector, which has sent its stock price soaring.
According to analyst estimates compiled by FactSet, Coinbase is projected to post earnings per share of $2.11 and revenue of $1.84 billion, nearly doubling from $954 million a year earlier.
If these numbers hold, it would mark one of the company’s strongest quarters in recent history.
Coinbase sees strong trading volume but faces competition
Coinbase’s trading volume in the fourth quarter is expected to rise to $216 billion, up from $185 billion in the third quarter and $154 billion a year earlier.
While impressive, this remains well below the $312 billion recorded in early 2024 when spot Bitcoin ETFs were first approved.
A key concern for investors is whether Coinbase can maintain its dominance in the face of increasing competition.
With lighter regulations, traditional brokerage firms could enter the crypto space, potentially eating into Coinbase’s market share.
At the same time, subscription and services revenue, which includes earnings from the stablecoin USDC, is expected to grow to $611 million, up from $375 million in the previous year.
This segment provides a more stable revenue stream compared to the volatile trading business.
Wall Street expectations from COIN stock
Since Donald Trump’s re-election, Coinbase shares have climbed 40% to $272, mirroring Bitcoin’s 42% rise to $96,882.
While the overall outlook for Coinbase is positive, analysts remain divided on whether the company will meet expectations.
Citi analysts raised their price target on Coinbase to $350 from $275, citing strong market conditions and regulatory tailwinds.
“We maintain our bullish thesis on COIN, seeing the company well positioned to benefit as crypto begins a potential transition into a new era,” analysts at the bank wrote in a note.
They maintain a buy rating on the stock.
JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington, however, is more cautious.
While he acknowledged the November election was a “monumental catalyst for the crypto ecosystem,” he remains neutral on the shares.
He sees fourth-quarter revenue at $1.77 billion, also a miss from the $1.8 billion consensus estimate.
Robinhood’s earnings could signal good news for Coinbase
Another factor that could bode well for Coinbase is the strong performance of Robinhood, which reported fourth-quarter revenue of 1.01 billion dollars, up 115% from the previous year.
Robinhood’s crypto trading revenue surged 700%, reflecting renewed retail interest in digital assets.
Since both companies share a similar retail trading base, analysts believe Coinbase could see a similar boost in user activity.
If Coinbase’s trading volumes match expectations, the exchange could be on track for one of its best quarters since the last crypto bull run.
The outlook remains tied to Trump’s crypto policies
Trump’s election victory in November has been a game-changer for the cryptocurrency industry.
The president has pledged to make the United States the “crypto capital of the world” by easing regulatory pressures.
The administration has moved quickly to implement pro-crypto policies.
Trump has appointed crypto-friendly figures to key regulatory positions, including Mark Uyeda as acting SEC chairman and venture capitalist David Sacks to lead a White House initiative on crypto regulation.
The SEC has already established a working group to develop a clearer legal framework for the industry.
These regulatory changes could have a direct impact on Coinbase.
The SEC sued the exchange in 2023, alleging it operated as an unregistered securities exchange.
However, analysts now believe the agency may either drop the lawsuit or settle on terms that allow Coinbase to continue operating without major disruptions.
As Coinbase prepares to report earnings, the broader crypto industry is watching for further regulatory developments under the Trump administration.
If the SEC and other agencies continue to ease restrictions, Coinbase could expand its offerings, adding more tradable tokens and financial products.
Despite the potential for increased competition, analysts remain bullish on Coinbase’s ability to capitalize on the new pro-crypto environment.
The company’s fourth-quarter results will offer the first real glimpse into how much Trump’s policies are already shaping the future of the industry.
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