American Invest Hub
  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News

American Invest Hub

  • Politics
  • Investing
  • Business
  • Latest News
Investing

USD/CAD forecast: signal ahead of BOC decision, US inflation data

by admin March 10, 2025
March 10, 2025
USD/CAD forecast: signal ahead of BOC decision, US inflation data

The USD/CAD exchange rate rose slightly after the latest Liberal Party election in which Mark Carney won to replace Justin Trudeau. It also rose ahead of the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) decision and the US consumer inflation data. It was trading at 1.4380,  few points above last week’s low of 1.4340.

Bank of Canada decision

The USD/CAD exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate decision.

Economists expect the bank to continue with its dovish outlook in this meeting by cutting interest rates by 0.25%. If this happens, the bank will bring its official cash rate to 2.75% from the previous 3.0%.

The BoC has been one of the most dovish central banks in the market in the past few months after cutting rates six times. It has moved them from last year’s high of 5.5% to the current 3%.

These interest rate cuts happened as the Canadian economy slowed down substantially and inflation moved to the 2% target rate. Data released last week showed that the unemployment rate was 6.6%, while the economy added just 1.1k jobs in February. 

There is a risk that the Canadian economy will continue to decelerate now that the country has moved into a trade war with the United States. Trump has added a universal tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on energy products. 

Trump believes that these tariffs will help to balance the trade with Canada. Experts have noted that, while Canada has a trade surplus with the US, it is mostly because of energy products. Excluding these products, the US has a large trade surplus with Canada

Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada (BoC) governor and the incoming prime minister, has maintained that he will maintain the tariffs that the country has implemented on US goods until Trump caves. 

Read more: USD/CAD forecast: BoC, Fed and the carry trade opportunity

US inflation data ahead

The USD/CAD exchange rate reacted to last Friday’s US jobs numbers. According to the statistics agency, the US economy created 151k jobs in February after adding a downward-revised 125k a month earlier. This job creation was lower than the median estimate of 159k.

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, while the average hourly earnings rose to 4.9%, lower than the median estimate of 4.1%. The ongoing trade war that has affected consumer and business confidence in the US will affect the labor market. 

Looking ahead, the next key USD/CAD news to watch will be the upcoming US consumer inflation data. Economists expect the data to show that US inflation dropped from 0.5% in January to 0.3% in February and from 3.0% to 2.9% on a YoY basis. 

Core inflation is expected to move from 3.3% to 3.2%. While this will be a good report, there are concerns that inflation will tick up over time because of these tariffs.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USDCAD price chart | Source: TradingView

The USD to CAD exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few years as the Canadian economy has slowed. It moved from a low of 1.2000 in July 2021 to 1.4400 today.

The USD/CAD pair moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also remained above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The pair has formed a bullish pennant pattern, a popular continuation sign. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bullish, with the next level to watch being at 1.4790, the highest level this year. 

The post USD/CAD forecast: signal ahead of BOC decision, US inflation data appeared first on Invezz

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Analysts are bullish on Lloyds share price: should you?
next post
Asana stock price forecast ahead of earnings: is it a good buy?

Related Posts

USD/INR forms a small double-top: Is the rupee...

January 31, 2025

Westgold and Karora to Merge in AU$1.23 Billion...

April 11, 2024

USD, EUR, GBP, TRY:  Turkish lira comeback can’t...

October 16, 2024

Mineral Resource Update – Mt Boppy Gold Project

April 20, 2024

Forum Commences Mobilization for 10,000 Metre Drill Program...

March 27, 2024

Top catalysts for the Nasdaq 100 Index and...

August 10, 2025

WTI crude oil price analysis: here’s why it...

April 14, 2025

The growing power of the individual investor

December 21, 2024

The bullish case for the Dow Jones Index

August 17, 2025

Jindalee Secures Up to $6.7M in Funding to...

July 4, 2024

    Stay updated with the latest news, exclusive offers, and special promotions. Sign up now and be the first to know! As a member, you'll receive curated content, insider tips, and invitations to exclusive events. Don't miss out on being part of something special.


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Latest News

    • FBI raid on John Bolton’s home in Washington linked to classified documents

      August 25, 2025
    • Argentine senate deals blow to Milei’s austerity agenda with university budget boost

      August 25, 2025
    • Jackson Hole Symposium: what Powell said about economic effects of Trump’s tariffs

      August 25, 2025
    • At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell signals possible cuts while warning of uncertainty

      August 25, 2025
    • Trump threatens to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid mortgage fraud allegations

      August 25, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (3,763)
    • Investing (2,783)
    • Latest News (2,048)
    • Politics (1,530)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: americaninvesthub.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 americaninvesthub.com | All Rights Reserved