Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) chief executive Jensen Huang says the White House has based its export regulations on the assumption that China is incapable of making its own AI chips.
But recent checks confirm this assumption is fundamentally flawed, he argued on the company’s earnings call last night, adding “the question is not whether China will have AI – it already does.”
Huang’s remarks are significant since they might suggest Beijing is not as dependent on Nvidia as some would have thought. That said, NVDA shares are up 50% versus their year-to-date low at writing.
What’s next for Nvidia as its China business comes to a halt
Jensen Huang has been vocal in his opposition to tightened chip export regulation under the Trump administration, having previously warned they’re hurting US businesses more than they are hurting China.
If it weren’t for export restrictions, Nvidia would have made up to $2.5 billion worth of additional sales in its first financial quarter, he added.
More importantly, the chipmaker last night guided for up to $45 billion in sales for its current fiscal quarter – a number that would have been as much as 18% higher without the US export regulations.
“The $50 billion China market is effectively closed to the US industry. As a result, we are taking multibillion-dollar write off on inventory that can’t be sold or repurposed,” he told investors on the call.
What’s next for China amidst trimmed access to NVDA chips
While new restrictions that disable Nvidia from selling in the world’s second-largest economy sure seem significant for the AI darling, it’s reasonable to believe that China won’t even budge because of them.
Huang has already warned that Beijing is “right behind us” in artificial intelligence. China, he’s convinced, is strongly positioned to “move on’ with or without NVDA chips.
Note that Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon also believes that barring Nvidia from selling in China is synonymous to “handing the entire AI market in China over to Huawei.”
On the flip side, however, the US President won deals worth billions for NVDA during his recent visit of the Gulf states. Plus, the AI stock currently pays a dividend as well.
Could Nvidia print a new all-time high in 2025?
Despite the China overhang, Nvidia came in handily above Street estimates in its fiscal Q1.
The company based out of Santa Clara, California earned 96 cents a share on $44.06 billion in revenue in its first financial quarter.
Analysts, in comparison, had called for 93 cents per share and $43.31 billion, respectively.
Financial strength is among the top reasons why NVDA stock remains a favourite among Wall Street analysts.
The mean target on Nvidia shares currently sits at a tad above $163, indicating potential upside of another 15% from current levels.
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