XRP has wiped out most of its gains from early May, falling more than 11% before staging a mild recovery to $2.14—up 0.71% in the latest session.
Source: CoinMarketCap
The rebound offers slight relief as June begins, though investor caution remains high due to seasonal trends and ongoing selling by long-term holders.
Despite renewed hopes following Ripple’s progress in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), broader sentiment remains fragile.
With the broader crypto market showing signs of consolidation, XRP faces mixed signals. Investors now must consider the impact of poor seasonal performance alongside the recent selling pressure from experienced holders.
June trends show -8.49% median return over 11 years
A look at XRP’s historical price action shows that June has consistently underperformed. According to data spanning the last 11 years, the median monthly return for XRP in June is -8.49%.
Following the late May sell-off, the altcoin enters the new month with heightened risk of further downside, despite the current uptick.
Seasonality in crypto markets can have tangible effects, particularly for assets with strong historical patterns.
In XRP’s case, the confluence of historical weakness and recent technical signals may prompt increased caution from traders and institutional players alike.
Long-term holders offload as Coin Days Destroyed spikes
One of the most critical indicators of investor behaviour—Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—has surged in recent days, pointing to a sell-off by long-term holders (LTHs).
CDD is calculated by multiplying the amount of XRP spent by the number of days since it was last moved, thereby providing a clearer picture of older coins re-entering the market.
XRP’s CDD currently stands at 337 billion, the highest level since December 2024. The significance of this metric lies in its ability to track capital rotation from experienced holders to newer entrants.
Historically, when CDD spikes, it indicates that LTHs are exiting positions either to secure profits or mitigate downside risk.
Such sell-offs often mark a shift in market structure. The exit of experienced investors can lead to increased volatility and potentially suppress any recovery attempts in the short term.
XRP remains above the $2.12 support level, but failure to hold this line could trigger a drop to $2.02 or even $1.94.
SEC case nearing end but XRP ETF prospects still uncertain
While XRP’s recent rebound may be encouraging to some investors, regulatory clarity remains a key variable.
Ripple’s long-running court battle with the SEC is expected to conclude soon, a milestone that many believe will open new doors for the company.
One possibility is the launch of a Ripple IPO, given the company’s treasury holds more than $120 billion in XRP—more than double the amount of Bitcoin held by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
However, expectations around a potential XRP ETF remain muted.
While such a product would attract significant inflows, other avenues for exposure are also being considered by institutional investors.
According to crypto industry figures, attention may shift toward firms like VivoPower or Hyperscale offering indirect exposure to XRP, similar to how Strategy offers exposure to Bitcoin.
ETF or not, this structural interest could help reverse the bearish pressure if timed with improving market conditions.
For now, XRP continues to test investor patience with mixed signals across the board.
RSI remains weak as XRP tests key support levels
From a technical perspective, XRP is trading at $2.14, having increased by 0.71%.
The price remains just above the key $2.12 support level, with the next major resistance at $2.27.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signalling weak buying momentum.
A break below $2.12 could accelerate the downtrend, but if buyers manage to reclaim $2.27, a short-term rally toward $2.50 is still possible.
For that to happen, new accumulation would need to absorb selling from LTHs. An approval of an ETF, public offering, or strategic corporate investment could serve as a catalyst.
Until then, the altcoin is likely to remain under pressure, depending on how broader market trends and regulatory decisions evolve.
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