The GLD ETF ended the week in the green; reversing the losses recorded in the week. However, it remains range-bound as investors await a fresh bullish catalyst for bullion prices.
Geopolitical turbulence and tariff-driven uncertainties continue to support safe haven demand. Even with the steady bullish momentum, central bank buying eased in Q2’25.
GLD gold price consolidates as demand momentum dwindles
Geopolitical uncertainties have been one of gold’s key bullish drivers in the year’s first half. The latest developments of the Russia-Ukraine war have dampened the risk sentiment while bolstering the demand for precious metals and other safe haven assets.
Undeterred by President Trump’s ultimatum, President Vladimir Putin has indicated that the Russian troops are “advancing on the entire front line”. At the same time, Ukraine’s military stated that they had struck Russia’s oil facilities on Saturday. These geopolitical tensions, coupled with tariff-related concerns, have shifted the market sentiment from greed to neutral.
Besides, capped US dollar gains are offering support to gold price in the short term. Ordinarily, a weaker greenback makes the bullion less expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies.
Notably, data released on Friday showed the addition of 73,000 jobs to the economy in July compared to the expected 110,000. In addition to the weak NFP numbers, Trump’s decision to fire the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer further weighed on the US dollar. The US President accused the commissioner of manipulating the data.
In the coming week, investors will be eyeing a fresh catalyst for gold price. While the demand for the bullion remains healthy, the momentum has declined.
According to the World Gold Council, the pace of central bank buying eased in Q2’25 as the bullion hit multiple record highs. More specifically, central banks purchased 166.5 tonnes of gold during the three-month period. The figure, which was one-third less than in Q1’25, brought the purchases in H1’25 to the lowest level since 2022.
Even with this easing, central bank buying remains one of the key drivers of gold’s uptrend. While higher gold prices may have lowered the institutions’ incentive to buy, the underlying narrative has not changed.
Notably, their pace of buying increased during the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves. It was an awakening on the benefits of having gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. Analysts expect significant purchases for the remainder of the year with an annualized forecast of 815 tonnes.
GLD ETF technical analysis
GLD ETF chart | Source: TradingView
GLD gold price ended the week on a higher note after recording two weekly losses. However, it remains significantly below the 5-week high hit early last week. This is after pulling back to a one-month low earlier this week.
Even with the volatility, GLD gold price has held steady above the crucial support zone of $300; largely trading within a range of between $302 and $312. A look at its daily chart shows a rather neutral outlook.
With an RSI of 52 and the asset finding support along the 25-day EMA, the current consolidation may continue in the coming week. Even with heightened safe-haven demand, the bulls may lack enough bullish momentum to retest the all-time high of $317; placing the upper resistance zone at $315. However, this thesis will be invalidated by a move below the crucial support level of $300.
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