The USD/JPY exchange rate remained in a consolidation phase last week as traders focused on the upcoming actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. It was trading at 147, where it has remained in the past few days. It has dropped by over 7.5% from the year-to-date high.
US nonfarm payrolls data
The USD/JPY exchange rate was unchanged as traders wait for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by just 78,000 in August, a slight improvement from the 73,000 it added in the previous month.
Based on the recent trends, it is likely that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will downgrade the estimate of the July jobs report. In its last report, it downgraded the May and June jobs reports to show that the economy created an average of 35,000 jobs in May and June.
The upcoming jobs report is important because it is what the Federal Reserve is focusing on when making it interest rates. If the jobs numbers come short of expectations, they will boost the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%.
On the other hand, recent data sent mixed signals on the Japanese economy. In Tokyo, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6% in July, while the core CPI jumped 3.0%.
Tokyo’s inflation eased mostly because of the government’s subsidies, suggesting that things are not going on well. The tight labor market means that inflation will remain at an elevated level for a while.
At the same time, the country’s industrial production is weakening, complicating the BoJ’s outlook. In a note, analysts at ING wrote that:
“We continue to believe that the Bank of Japan will deliver a 25 hike in October thanks to reduced uncertainty over US tariffs and firm inflation. But the BoJ’s concern about weak growth may have increased after today’s weak activity data.”
USD/JPY technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged in the past few days. It has slumped from a high of 150, its highest point in July to the current 147.
The pair has formed a bearish flag chart pattern, which is comprised of a vertical line and an ascending channel. It has formed an inverse cup-and-handle pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at 145.
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