Gasoline margins in the Atlantic Basin surged to an average of $18-$19 per barrel in September, a significant increase from the $6-$9 per barrel seen a year ago.
This sharp rise, which has pushed Rbob gasoline forward margins to their highest levels since August 2024, highlights the profound impact prolonged supply disruptions can have even on an oversupplied market, according to a Vortexa analysis.
This summer, gasoline import demand in the Atlantic Basin was lower than anticipated, registering 5% below the nine-year seasonal average in June, Vortexa said.
“Combined with counterseasonal middle distillate strength, refineries likely shifted their yields to produce middle distillates, widening the supply gap between these transportation fuels,” Pamela Munger, head of market analysis, EMEA, said.
Refineries shift focus to middle distillates
Gasoline loadings within the Intra-Atlantic Basin have consistently remained below the nine-year seasonal average throughout the entire year.
Throughout this period, a notable surge in middle distillate loadings was observed, reaching the highest point within the nine-year seasonal range.
This significant increase can be directly attributed to the robust demand for power generation across Wider Europe.
The heightened need for electricity in the region drove up consumption of middle distillates, leading to increased shipments to meet the escalating demand.
This trend underscores the critical role of middle distillates in regional energy supply, particularly for power generation infrastructure.
The current robust margins in gasoline, despite the generally subdued demand observed throughout the summer, can be attributed to a complex interplay of several crucial supply-side factors.
Unplanned outages and margin strength
A significant contributor is a series of unplanned refinery outages projected across key regions including Europe, West Africa, and the Middle East, scheduled to occur between September and November 2025.
These disruptions are expected to tighten gasoline supply considerably.
Concurrently, refineries are strategically adjusting their operational yields, a process known as “flexing yields,” to capitalise on the unusual, counter-seasonal strength witnessed in middle distillates.
Middle distillates, which include products like diesel and jet fuel, typically see peak demand during colder months.
However, their current robust performance is prompting refiners to prioritise their production, which inherently reduces the output of gasoline.
This strategic shift further exacerbates the supply constraints in the gasoline market, contributing significantly to the observed margin strength.
The combination of these unplanned supply reductions and intentional production adjustments is creating a uniquely tight gasoline market, driving up prices and consequently boosting refinery margins.
“Low crude values have also contributed to the strength despite poor demand,” Munger said.
Despite widespread reports anticipating a milder European refinery turnaround season compared to previous years, 2025 has already seen a notable decrease in operating capacity, amounting to approximately 400,000 barrels per day.
Munger noted:
Additionally, considering the Middle East now plays a larger role in supplying the Atlantic Basin, the looming outage program which includes over 900kbd between September – December, is likely to have an outsized impact on refined product margins
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