Shares in ASM International fell on Tuesday after the Dutch supplier of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment revised its full-year forecast, citing weaker-than-expected demand in the final months of the year.
The stock slipped 2.4% to 488.50 euros in early European trading, extending its year-to-date decline to 13%.
The Amsterdam-listed company now expects full-year revenue to land at the lower end of its previously guided 10%-20% range.
At constant currencies, second-half revenue is projected to be 5%-10% lower than the first half, as demand cools across several key markets.
Fourth-quarter weakness clouds outlook
While ASM’s third-quarter performance was in line with earlier guidance, the company flagged a deterioration in fourth-quarter demand.
“This is due to lower-than-expected demand in leading-edge logic/foundry, with a mixed picture per customer, as well as lower demand in the power/wafer/analog markets,” it said in a statement.
The softer backdrop will also weigh on new bookings, with management warning that the book-to-bill ratio will likely fall below one in the second half.
That indicates incoming orders will trail revenue, a negative sign for near-term visibility.
Long-term growth ambitions reaffirmed
Despite the near-term headwinds, ASM sought to reassure investors by laying out ambitious growth targets ahead of its investor day.
The company expects revenue to climb to more than 5.7 billion euros ($6.73 billion) by 2030, supported by a compound annual growth rate of at least 12%.
Between 2026 and 2030, the gross margin is projected to be 47%-51%, while the operating margin is expected to exceed 30%.
Free cash flow is anticipated to top 1 billion euros annually by 2030.
The company also narrowed its 2027 revenue outlook to a range of 3.7 to 4.6 billion euros, down from a prior range of 4 to 5 billion euros, reflecting currency headwinds.
Analysts highlight order timing issues, sectoral headwinds
Market reaction reflected investor disappointment, with analysts noting expectations had been set for a stronger fourth quarter.
Dutch bank ING said the weaker guidance did not point to a structural decline but rather the timing of orders in the leading-edge logic market.
“Investors should focus on ASM International’s exposure to long-term technology transitions, which underpin growth from 2026 onward,” the analysts said.
Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg said the softer outlook may also reflect challenges with major customers, including Intel and Samsung.
Meanwhile, KBC Securities described the lower 2025 guidance as “a bit unexpected but not unreasonable,” pointing to broader headwinds for the wafer fab equipment sector as Chinese demand normalises.
The mixed near-term picture leaves investors balancing ASM’s cyclical exposure with its longer-term potential.
For now, the company’s reaffirmed growth ambitions underline management’s confidence that structural demand for semiconductor equipment will remain intact despite periodic volatility.
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