Apple Inc. is approaching its October 30 earnings report with renewed investor confidence as analysts grow more optimistic about its performance despite persistent trade uncertainties and rising competition in China.
Market expectations point to earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of around $101.7 billion, according to GuruFocus.
The forecast, if met, would reflect steady growth from the previous quarter.
The company posted quarterly diluted earnings per share of $1.57 in the third quarter, with a quarterly revenue of $94 billion, up 10% year-on-year.
The upbeat sentiment comes as Apple shares surged to an all-time high this week, rising 4.5% to $263.72.
The rally has brought the iPhone maker closer to becoming the world’s third company to reach a $4 trillion market valuation, supported by early signs of strong demand for the newly launched iPhone 17.
iPhone 17 launch drives optimism; analysts say Apple could report upside in Sep-quarter
Research firm Counterpoint reported that iPhone 17 sales outpaced the previous year’s iPhone 16 models by 14% during their first 10 days in China and the United States.
Analysts say the momentum reflects robust demand for higher-end models, helping Apple maintain profitability even as broader smartphone markets remain sluggish.
Evercore ISI has said it believes Apple “is well positioned to report upside to current Sep-quarter consensus expectations and could guide to upside for the Dec-quarter”
The firm said its “positive bias is driven by iPhone data points that suggest this may be more than the average iPhone refresh cycle,” noting that “lead times for the base iPhone 17 are above last year’s October levels.”
Evercore expects Apple’s revenue to grow sequentially by 8.1% in the September quarter, roughly in line with its five-year seasonal average of 7.9%.
However, the brokerage sees room for an upside surprise, citing strong App Store revenue growth—estimated at about 12% during the quarter—and the resolution of earlier legal and regulatory hurdles affecting Apple’s Services segment.
Services business cushions hardware pressure; could see double-digit growth
Apple’s expanding Services business remains a major driver of optimism.
With offerings like iCloud, Apple Music, and the App Store now accounting for about a third of total revenue and carrying gross margins of around 75%, the division has helped offset the thinner profits from hardware.
The steady rise of Services has become a strategic buffer for Apple as it faces headwinds in hardware markets.
Evercore analysts said Apple could “point to continued double-digit Services growth now that we’ve seen a number of headwinds facing the segment get resolved (DOJ/GOOG, AAPL vs. EPIC, etc.) during the quarter.”
Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes said Apple now has its “best long-term product roadmap in years.”
He pointed to the forthcoming “Siri 2.0” and next-generation home devices—such as an AI-enabled hub and domestic robots—as potential new revenue streams.
Analysts divided over near-term outlook
Despite the optimistic tone, not all analysts are uniformly bullish.
Jefferies remains cautious, forecasting Apple’s fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and operating profit roughly 4% below Wall Street’s consensus.
The brokerage cited flat product sales outside of iPhones and renewed tariff concerns as key risks.
President Donald Trump’s plan to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports beginning November 1 could weigh on Apple’s profitability if current exemptions for iPhone components are revoked.
Jefferies trimmed its price target for Apple to $203.07 from $205.16, warning that the company’s heavy reliance on Chinese assembly could expose it to sharp margin pressure.
Even so, other firms remain confident.
Evercore ISI reaffirmed its “Outperform” rating with a $290 price target, while Loop Capital upgraded Apple from “Hold” to “Buy,” citing stronger-than-expected iPhone demand.
Evercore ISI said Apple could guide ahead of street expectations, which currently suggest quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.3% versus typical seasonality of 43%.
Reitzes expects the products like AI-enabled hub and domestic robots, along with continued iPhone upgrades, can push Apple’s earnings power toward $10 per share “sooner than expected.”
Solid fundamentals overshadow short-term concerns
While tariff uncertainty and Chinese competition continue to shadow Apple’s outlook, analysts agree that the company’s blend of high-margin Services and premium hardware has given it a unique cushion against volatility.
Its steady cash flow, cost discipline, and growing ecosystem of recurring revenues are viewed as key strengths as global markets remain uneven.
With early data pointing to another successful iPhone cycle and new products on the horizon, Apple appears poised to maintain its leadership in the tech sector—provided trade tensions and production costs remain manageable.
As the company prepares to release earnings on October 30, Wall Street’s focus will be on how much momentum Apple can carry into the December quarter, and whether its latest results confirm that one of the world’s most valuable tech companies is still gaining ground even amid uncertainty.
The post Apple Q4 earnings preview: here’s what to expect appeared first on Invezz