Shares of Danish shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk fell 6% on Thursday after the company delivered a modest third-quarter earnings beat but failed to lift its full-year guidance enough to meet market expectations.
The stock was on track for its worst single-day performance since March, reflecting investor disappointment over the group’s cautious outlook for 2025.
The company, seen as a bellwether for global trade, reported preliminary underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.68 billion for the July–September period, slightly above analyst estimates of $2.58 billion.
Revenue fell to $14.21 billion from $15.76 billion a year earlier as lower freight rates weighed on profitability.
Maersk now expects underlying EBITDA for 2025 to range between $9 billion and $9.5 billion, tightening its earlier forecast of $8 billion to $9.5 billion.
While the upgrade lifted the lower end of guidance, it fell short of buyside expectations that had been closer to $10 billion.
“We think the market had expected a stronger beat and raise,” JP Morgan analysts said in a note, adding that it expected the new guidance to disappoint.
Resilient shipping volumes help offset lower freight rates
Maersk said strong container demand and improved cost efficiencies helped cushion the impact of falling freight rates in the third quarter.
Freight volumes rose 7% year-on-year, driven largely by exports from East Asia, with China’s technology goods supporting much of the growth.
“In the third quarter of 2025, global container demand grew between 3% and 5% year-on-year, defiant of disruptions,” the company said.
Imports were strong in Europe, Africa, Latin America, and West Central Asia, while shipments to North America contracted, particularly from China to the United States.
Average freight rates declined 31% across major shipping routes, and costs rose due to higher volumes, partly offset by lower fuel prices.
Analysts warned that weaker rates could soon push Maersk’s shipping division into the red.
“The fine result in the quarter will probably be quickly forgotten, because it is more the clarification of expectations that is grabbing the headlines this time,” said Haider Anjum at Jyske Bank, who also cautioned that rates may drop again once Red Sea transit routes reopen.
Efficiency push and alliance with Hapag-Lloyd
The company highlighted the benefits of its Gemini Cooperation, an operational alliance with Hapag-Lloyd launched earlier this year.
The partnership pools vessels to cut costs and improve schedule reliability.
Maersk said the network has begun to deliver efficiencies and will be further optimised to enhance customer service.
“Building on this strong performance, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd plan to further optimize the network and maximize positive customer impact,” the company said.
Maersk maintained its assumption that disruptions in the Red Sea will persist through the rest of the year.
The company has avoided the region since late 2024 due to security risks and said it would only resume transit once a long-term solution is in place.
Despite the challenging outlook, Maersk raised its forecast for global container demand growth this year to around 4%, from a previous range of 2% to 4%.
Still, with freight rates under pressure and trade tensions weighing on demand, analysts said investor confidence may take time to recover.
As one of the world’s largest container shippers, Maersk’s results continue to serve as a crucial indicator of the health of global trade.
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