India’s march toward becoming a $5 trillion economy has been a central theme in policy and investor discussions.
Now, Vishrut Rana, Asia Pacific Economist at S&P Global Ratings, believes the milestone could be reached as early as 2028—beating the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimates.
Speaking to CNBC, Rana emphasised that India’s strong growth trajectory, structural reforms, and demographic advantages put the country on track to achieve this ambitious target sooner than many expect.
What may drive accelerated growth in the Indian economy?
India’s economy has consistently outpaced most major peers, driven by robust domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and digital transformation.
Rana explained that “India’s growth trajectory remains robust, and we expect the $5 trillion milestone could be achieved by 2028.”
This projection is faster than the IMF’s timeline, which places the target further into the next decade.
Key drivers include government-led infrastructure spending, production-linked incentives to boost manufacturing, and the rapid expansion of digital services.
Sustaining growth above 6% annually will be critical, but Rana noted that India’s reforms are beginning to show results. If momentum continues, the country could surprise global observers by hitting the milestone earlier than expected.
Fundamentals of the Indian economy remain strong
While the outlook is positive, Rana cautioned that external headwinds could still influence the pace of progress.
“Global demand conditions, commodity prices, and financial market volatility will continue to shape India’s outlook,” he said.
Rising oil prices, for example, could widen the current account deficit, while tighter global financial conditions may impact capital flows.
But India’s diversified economy – anchored by a strong services sector and growing manufacturing base – provides resilience.
The country’s ability to expand exports, attract foreign investment, and manage inflation will determine how smoothly it reaches the $5 trillion mark.
Despite these risks, Rana’s projection underscores confidence in India’s fundamentals and its ability to withstand global shocks.
Beating IMF estimates signals confidence in reforms
The fact that S&P Global Ratings believes India can hit $5 trillion by 2028 – earlier than IMF projections – reflects growing confidence in the country’s reform agenda.
Rana stressed that “it’s not just about hitting the number; it’s about ensuring the quality and sustainability of growth.”
India’s demographic dividend, rising middle class, and push for industrial competitiveness are expected to underpin this journey.
Achieving the milestone ahead of the IMF’s timeline would signal that reforms in infrastructure, manufacturing, and financial markets are delivering tangible results.
For policymakers, it would also validate the vision of India as a global economic powerhouse. For investors, it highlights the opportunity to tap into one of the fastest-growing large economies in the world.
Such progress would also strengthen India’s global influence, attract greater foreign investment, and reinforce its role in shaping future economic trends.
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