Gold price moved sideways and remained at a crucial support level even as geopolitical risks rose. XAU was trading at $3,363 today, June 23, a few points lower than the year-to-date high of $3,440. It has jumped by almost 30% this year and formed a rare pattern that could lead to more gains.
Gold price technical analysis points to more gains
Technicals suggest that gold price has more upside in the coming weeks and months. The chart below shows that gold remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has provided it with substantial support lately.
Most importantly, gold has formed an ascending triangle pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign. This pattern comprises of a horizontal support line at its all-time high at $3,440. It also has a diagonal support that connects the lowest swings since April 7.
Therefore, this pattern points to an eventual rebound to a new all-time high in the coming weeks. A move above the all-time high of $3,440 will point to more gains to the psychological point at $3,500.
However, there is a risk that gold may drop in the near term since the upper side of the triangle can be viewed as a triple-top pattern with a neckline at $3,120. A triple-top often leads to a bearish breakdown.
Gold price chart | Source: TradingView
Wall Street banks are bullish on gold
Meanwhile, most Wall Street analysts are highly bullish on gold price. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that gold will end the year at $3,700 per ounce, citing strong central bank demand.
JPMorgan analysts see gold rising to between $3,675 and $4,000 this year amid geopolitical risks and central banks buying about 900 tons.
Bank of America sees gold price surging to $4,000, noting that the soaring US public debt is a major risk. US debt has jumped to almost $37 trillion this year, and the Big Beautiful Bill will make the situation worse.
Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the gold price could jump to over $3,700 this year.
Not all experts are bullish on gold. UBS sees gold peaking at $3,200, which has already happened, while Citigroup expects it to range between $2,500 and $2,700. Morgan Stanley’s target of $3,400 has already been reached.
Key catalysts for gold price
Gold has numerous catalysts that may push it higher in the coming months. First, geopolitical risks could accelerate after the US bombed Iran nuclear sites during the weekend. The US and other countries like Russia and China have remained on edge this year.
Second, US public debt has continued soaring this year, and experts estimate that the Big Beautiful Bill will lead to a big increase in US public debt. Analysts see the debt surging by almost $3 trillion in a decade.
Further, data shows that Wall Street investors are still accumulating gold this year. The GLD ETF has had inflows in the past six consecutive weeks and the trajectory is gaining steam. It added $1.9 billion last week, higher than $711 million a week earlier and $426 million before that.
Gold price could also jump because the Federal Reserve will restart its interest rate cuts soon. Its meeting last week estimated that it will impose 2 cuts this year and more in 2026 and 2027. Gold price often does well when central banks are slashing interest rates.
Further, XAU could jump as central banks, especially in India, China, and Russia have continued to accumulate gold this year amid the shift from the safety of the US dollar.
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