Global oil markets are operating within a narrow band, with traders closely watching two key developments: the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on production levels and Washington’s next steps in targeting Russian energy supplies.
Brent crude hovered near $69.00 a barrel, edging higher after a 1% gain in the November contract during the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded close to $65.00.
The market has been waiting for fresh catalysts, as crude has been stuck between $65.00 and $70.00 in recent weeks, about 8% lower year-to-date.
OPEC+ set to decide October output
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will convene this weekend to finalise output for October.
Market observers widely expect the group to keep supply steady, after earlier meetings saw supply curbs eased in an effort to claw back market share.
That decision raised concerns of a looming surplus, especially as demand growth remains uncertain amid a US-led trade war that risks slowing energy consumption.
This weekend’s decision will set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly as oil has struggled to break out of its narrow price range.
Traders are positioning for signals that could either confirm stability or raise fresh worries about oversupply.
US pressure on Russian crude flows
Russian oil exports remain central to geopolitical tensions, as the US continues to pressure Moscow by targeting India, one of the largest buyers of Russian crude.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Vladimir Putin in a cordial exchange on Monday, where New Delhi rejected US calls to curb imports.
Washington, however, has not stepped back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that new sanctions could be announced this week, aiming to push Moscow towards peace in Ukraine.
The measures may weigh further on Russian supply, although the global market impact will depend on how India and other major importers respond.
Indian tariffs and Trump’s statement
Alongside US sanctions, trade tensions added another layer of uncertainty.
President Donald Trump said India had offered to cut tariffs on US goods to zero, following Washington’s imposition last week of 50% levies as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
While it is unclear when the offer was made or if it will reopen talks, the announcement comes ahead of Trump’s scheduled address at 2 pm Washington time on Tuesday.
India’s role remains critical in shaping oil demand and trade balances. Its refusal to halt Russian imports highlights the limitations of US sanctions when weighed against domestic energy needs.
Any tariff cuts, however, could signal a recalibration of trade relations between the two nations.
Supply risks keep prices rangebound
Despite geopolitical uncertainty, analysts suggest that crude prices are being held in check by two competing forces: risks to supply and fears of oversupply.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have provided a floor for prices, while expectations of a glut have capped gains.
The balance has left oil “rangebound” in recent weeks, with the Brent benchmark unable to break out decisively.
As sanctions debates continue and OPEC+ finalises its October output, traders are braced for volatility.
With Brent stuck near $69.00 and WTI at $65.00, any new policy announcement could push prices beyond their current band.
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