Valero Energy has emerged as a key focus for investors after renewed attention on Venezuela’s oil sector following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and US President Donald Trump’s push to encourage American oil companies to help revive the country’s battered industry.
The US-based refiner has drawn backing from both Wall Street analysts and prominent investor Michael Burry, who said he has held Valero shares since 2020 and plans to maintain that position for longer.
“Realize that many Gulf Coast refineries were purpose-built for Venezuelan heavy crude,” Burry wrote in a Monday blog post on Substack.
“So they have been running with suboptimal feedstock for years. This will, in time, produce better margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel … I have owned Valero since 2020, and I am more resolved to holding it even longer after this weekend.”
Valero’s shares rose around 10% on Monday as investors reacted to the prospect of improved feedstock economics.
Gulf Coast advantage
Valero operates 15 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the UK, with the majority of its capacity concentrated on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast.
Those facilities are among the best positioned in the US to handle heavy crude grades, giving the company a structural advantage if Venezuelan supply increases.
Analysts at Tudor, Pickering & Holt said Valero is “easily the biggest potential beneficiary” of any rebound in Venezuelan oil production and exports to the US.
They added that while smaller refiners such as PBF Energy and HF Sinclair could also benefit, Valero stands out due to its scale and historical exposure to Venezuelan crude.
Matthew Blair, TPH’s head of chemicals, refiners and renewable fuels equity research, said an increase in Venezuelan output could widen the discount between heavy crudes and benchmark prices such as Brent and West Texas Intermediate, supporting refinery margins.
He pointed to Maya crude, a heavy Mexican grade that competes with Venezuelan oil, which has traded at a narrower discount to Brent in 2025 than in earlier years.
Blair said that the discount would likely widen again if Venezuelan production rises.
Uncertainty remains
US government data shows Valero imported about 70,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude in 2025.
Heavy crude imports from Mexico and Venezuela account for roughly 21% of the feedstock processed at Valero’s refineries, according to TPH.
No other US refiner relies as heavily on non-Canadian heavy crude.
Despite the potential upside, Blair cautioned that uncertainty remains over whether US companies would commit capital to Venezuela.
Political instability, questions over governance, and the risk of further US actions could deter investment.
He added that significant upgrades to Venezuela’s power grid, infrastructure, and workforce would be required before the country could meaningfully tap its vast oil reserves.
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